Stage 0: Market Creation & Community
Sign up, invite friends, create markets, and vote. The top 25 markets will be selected for the game. Earn points for referrals, creating markets, and getting your markets selected.
Ends on January 23, 2025MMXXV
A prediction game for 2025.
Game Stages
Stage 1: Money Lines
Set your probability estimates for each market. Points awarded for aligning with the wisdom of the crowd.
Ends on January 24, 2025Stage 2: Prediction
Submit your YES/NO predictions for each market you want to participate in.
Ends on January 25, 2025Stage 3: Resolution
Markets are resolved and final results announced. Early resolutions may be submitted throughout the year.
Ends on December 31, 2025Points System
Initial Points
You can earn points in two ways during the early stages:
- 10 points for each person you refer (up to 5 people, maximum 50 points)
- 10 points for each market you create (up to 5 markets, maximum 50 points)
Market Selection Bonus
If your created market makes it into the top 25 selected markets, you'll earn an additional 100 points per selected market.
Money Line Points
Points are awarded for making probability estimates that align with the wisdom of the crowd. Everyone starts with 100 points per market, and points are deducted based on how far your estimate is from the average prediction.
Example: You estimate a 10% chance for "Aliens make contact" while the average prediction is 8%. You lose 2 points, resulting in 98 points for this market.
Market Resolution Points
Points are awarded based on correct predictions, with more points given for correctly predicting unlikely outcomes. The points are calculated using the following formula:
- For correct predictions: You earn min(100, 5/x) points, where x is the money line probability
- For incorrect predictions: You lose min(50, 2/x) points, where x is the money line probability
Points for Correct Prediction
Points Lost for Incorrect Prediction
Example 1: A market has a 10% consensus probability (x = 0.1). You predict YES, and it happens. You earn 50 points (min(100, 5/0.1) = min(100, 50) = 50).
Example 2: A market has a 1% consensus probability (x = 0.01). You predict YES, and it happens. You earn 100 points (min(100, 5/0.01) = min(100, 500) = 100).
Example 3: A market has a 10% consensus probability (x = 0.1). You predict YES, and it doesn't happen. You lose 20 points (min(50, 2/0.1) = min(50, 20) = 20).
Early Resolution
Some markets may resolve before the end of the year. When this happens:
- Any user can submit a resolution request
- An admin will review and may approve the early resolution
- Early resolutions are provisional and will be voted on at the end of the year
- Provisional points will be displayed on the leaderboard for entertainment
Example: A market about "Will X company release Y product?" might resolve early if the company makes an official announcement. A user can submit this as evidence for early resolution.
Winning
The player with the most points at the end of the year wins all the marbles.
Conflict Resolution
Markets should have clear, objective resolution criteria that everyone can agree on.
If there is a dispute about a market's outcome, it will be put to a vote at the end of the year.
Since this is our first year running this game, we will have a final vote to determine if the game was successful. If the majority votes yes, the prize will be awarded to the winner. If the majority votes no, all participants will be refunded.
Players are strongly encouraged to resolve disputes in good faith. The game is designed to be self-governing, and admins will only handle technical matters.
Code
This is an open source project. Contributions are welcome at github.com/RubricLab/mmxxv.